# Replication Package: CCA Tipping Point — Transition Regime or Lifecycle Saving?

## Overview
This folder contains all files needed to replicate the analysis in "CCA Tipping Point: Transition Regime or Lifecycle Saving?" The paper examines whether the demographic effect on current accounts in Caucasus and Central Asian (CCA) economies represents a structural transition regime or standard lifecycle saving behavior, using threshold tests, regime-switching, and governance interactions.

## Requirements
- Python 3.10+
- pandas, numpy, scipy, statsmodels
- Data files in data/processed/

## Structure
- `scripts/` — Analysis scripts (run in phase order)
- `src/` — Shared modules (PanelGLS estimator, data loading, country classifications)
- `data/processed/` — Processed panel data (cca_panel.csv)
- `output/tables/` — Generated output tables
- `paper/` — Paper manuscript and references

## Reproduction
Run scripts in numerical phase order:
```
python scripts/phase1_data_assembly.py
python scripts/phase2_baseline_fragility.py
python scripts/phase3_observable_regimes.py
python scripts/phase4_threshold_tests.py
python scripts/phase5_governance.py
python scripts/phase6_counterfactual.py
python scripts/phase7_robustness.py
```

## Data Sources
- UN World Population Prospects 2024
- IMF World Economic Outlook
- Penn World Table 10.01
- Chinn-Ito KAOPEN Index
- Lane & Milesi-Ferretti External Wealth of Nations
- Worldwide Governance Indicators

## Notes
- All analysis uses the 140-country expanded panel (EBA-49 + SSA-20 + EU expansion + Tier 1 expansion)
- The `src/` modules are from the multilateral/followup project and contain the expanded country lists
- CCA countries include Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, Mongolia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan
